Africa Cup of Nations

Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying | Group Stage

Sep 5, 2024 at 2pm UK

Bingu National Stadium

Malawi
2 - 3
Burundi

Kawonga (31'), Nkhoma (75')
Saizi (83')

FT(HT: 1-2)

Idana (22' og.), Claude Girumugisha (33'), Elie Eldhino (87')
Madjaliwa Mussa (21'), Nsabiyumva (90+4'), Ndayishimiye (90+4')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying clash between Malawi and Burundi, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Malawi

All competitions

Last Game: Eq Guinea 1-0 Malawi
Monday, June 10 at 2pm in World Cup Qualifying - Africa

Current Group B Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Senegal	3	1	5
2	Guinea	3	0	4
3	Malawi	3	0	4
4	Zimbabwe	3	-1	3

Burundi

All competitions

Last Game: Seychelles 1-3 Burundi
Tuesday, June 11 at 8pm in World Cup Qualifying - Africa

Current Group B Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Madagascar	3	3	7
2	Nigeria	3	0	6
3	Guinea	3	1	4
4	Burundi	3	-4	0

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Malawi win with a probability of 41.13%. A win for Burundi had a probability of 32.32% and a draw had a probability of 26.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Malawi win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.64%) and 2-0 (7.31%). The likeliest Burundi win was 0-1 (9.23%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.62%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2% likelihood.

Result
Malawi	Draw	Burundi
41.13% ( -0.32)	26.56% ( -0.01)	32.32% ( 0.32)

	Team	P	W	D	L	F	A	GD	PTS
C	Liverpool	38	25	9	4	86	41	45	84
2	Arsenal	38	20	14	4	69	34	35	74
3	Manchester City Man City	38	21	8	9	72	44	28	71
4	Chelsea	38	20	9	9	64	43	21	69
5	Newcastle United Newcastle	38	20	6	12	68	47	21	66
6	Aston Villa	38	19	9	10	58	51	7	66
7	Nottingham Forest Nott'm Forest	38	19	8	11	58	46	12	65
8	Brighton & Hove Albion Brighton	38	16	13	9	66	59	7	61
9	Bournemouth	38	15	11	12	58	46	12	56
10	Brentford	38	16	8	14	66	57	9	56
11	Fulham	38	15	9	14	54	54	0	54
12	Crystal Palace	38	13	14	11	51	51	0	53
13	Everton	38	11	15	12	42	44	-2	48
14	West Ham United West Ham	38	11	10	17	46	62	-16	43
15	Manchester United Man Utd	38	11	9	18	44	54	-10	42
16	Wolverhampton Wanderers Wolves	38	12	6	20	54	69	-15	42
17	Tottenham Hotspur Spurs	38	11	5	22	64	65	-1	38
R	Leicester City Leicester	38	6	7	25	33	80	-47	25
R	Ipswich Town Ipswich	38	4	10	24	36	82	-46	22
R	Southampton	38	2	6	30	26	86	-60	12
					> Premier League Full Table

Malawi	Draw	Burundi
1-0 @ 10.68% ( -0.09) 2-1 @ 8.64% ( -0.03) 2-0 @ 7.31% ( -0.08) 3-1 @ 3.94% ( -0.03) 3-0 @ 3.33% ( -0.05) 3-2 @ 2.33% ( 0) 4-1 @ 1.35% ( -0.01) 4-0 @ 1.14% ( -0.02) Other @ 2.41% Total : 41.12%	1-1 @ 12.62% 0-0 @ 7.81% ( -0.04) 2-2 @ 5.1% ( 0.02) 3-3 @ 0.92% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.1% Total : 26.55%	0-1 @ 9.23% ( 0.03) 1-2 @ 7.46% ( 0.06) 0-2 @ 5.45% ( 0.06) 1-3 @ 2.94% ( 0.04) 0-3 @ 2.15% ( 0.04) 2-3 @ 2.01% ( 0.02) Other @ 3.09% Total : 32.32%