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Africa Cup of Nations

Mali national football team
Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying | Group Stage
Sep 8, 2023 at 8pm UK
Stade 26 Mars
South Sudan national football team

Mali
4 - 0
South Sudan

Kone (10'), Doumbia (29', 57'), Dorgeles (82')
Samassekou (71')
FT(HT: 2-0)

Toha (74'), Mawa Christopher Lokosang (90')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying clash between Mali and South Sudan, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Mali

All competitions
Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying
Last Game: Congo 0-2 Mali
Sunday, June 18 at 5pm in Africa Cup of Nations Qualifying

South Sudan

Last Game: Egypt 3-0 South Sudan
Sunday, June 18 at 6pm in International Friendlies

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mali win with a probability of 74.25%. A draw had a probability of 17.2% and a win for South Sudan had a probability of 8.59%.

The most likely scoreline for a Mali win was 2-0 with a probability of 14.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (13.43%) and 3-0 (10.83%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.01%), while for a South Sudan win it was 0-1 (3.64%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Mali would win this match.

Result
MaliDrawSouth Sudan
74.25% (-0.509 -0.51)17.16% (0.281 0.28)8.59% (0.2261 0.23)
Both teams to score 39.91% (0.090000000000003 0.09)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
52.94% (-0.468 -0.47)47.06% (0.466 0.47)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
30.7% (-0.437 -0.44)69.3% (0.434 0.43)
Mali Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
88.92% (-0.262 -0.26)11.09% (0.261 0.26)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
64.53% (-0.578 -0.58)35.47% (0.576 0.58)
South Sudan Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
44.89% (0.232 0.23)55.11% (-0.234 -0.23)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
12.05% (0.137 0.14)87.95% (-0.14 -0.14)
Score Analysis
    Mali 74.23%
    South Sudan 8.59%
    Draw 17.16%
MaliDrawSouth Sudan
2-0 @ 14.77% (-0.030000000000001 -0.03)
1-0 @ 13.43% (0.11 0.11)
3-0 @ 10.83% (-0.14 -0.14)
2-1 @ 8.81% (0.045 0.04)
3-1 @ 6.46% (-0.036 -0.04)
4-0 @ 5.96% (-0.141 -0.14)
4-1 @ 3.55% (-0.058 -0.06)
5-0 @ 2.62% (-0.091 -0.09)
3-2 @ 1.92% (0.0030000000000001 0)
5-1 @ 1.56% (-0.043 -0.04)
4-2 @ 1.06% (-0.0089999999999999 -0.01)
6-0 @ 0.96% (-0.044 -0.04)
Other @ 2.31%
Total : 74.23%
1-1 @ 8.01% (0.127 0.13)
0-0 @ 6.11% (0.119 0.12)
2-2 @ 2.62% (0.032 0.03)
Other @ 0.42%
Total : 17.16%
0-1 @ 3.64% (0.096 0.1)
1-2 @ 2.39% (0.054 0.05)
0-2 @ 1.09% (0.037 0.04)
Other @ 1.48%
Total : 8.59%

How you voted: Mali vs South Sudan

Mali
71.4%
Draw
0.0%
South Sudan
28.6%
7
Head to Head
Jun 9, 2022 2pm
Group Stage
South Sudan
1-3
Mali
Kouyate (29' og.)
Yuel (28'), Elly Lokosang Christopher (30'), John Mayik (83')
Camara (59'), Koita (90+3'), Dieng (90+5')
Kone (78')
> Preview
rhs 2.0


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