Leverkusen logo
Champions League | League Stage
Oct 1, 2024 at 8pm UK
BayArena
Milan logo

B. Leverkusen
1 - 0
AC Milan

Boniface (51')
Garcia (8'), Frimpong (74')
FT(HT: 0-0)

Morata (84'), Chukwueze (90+4'), Tomori (90+5')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's Champions League clash between Bayer Leverkusen and AC Milan, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Bayern 1-1 B. Leverkusen
Saturday, September 28 at 5.30pm in Bundesliga
Last Game: AC Milan 3-0 Lecce
Friday, September 27 at 7.45pm in Serie A

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayer Leverkusen win with a probability of 56.65%. A win for AC Milan had a probability of 22.24% and a draw had a probability of 21.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Bayer Leverkusen win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.95%) and 1-0 (7.72%). The likeliest AC Milan win was 1-2 (5.78%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.45%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 7.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Bayer Leverkusen would win this match.

Result
Bayer LeverkusenDrawAC Milan
56.65% (0.072000000000003 0.07)21.11% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)22.24% (-0.07 -0.07)
Both teams to score 61.6% (-0.079999999999998 -0.08)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
63.74% (-0.062000000000005 -0.06)36.26% (0.056000000000004 0.06)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
41.62% (-0.064999999999998 -0.06)58.38% (0.059999999999995 0.06)
Bayer Leverkusen Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
87.25%12.74% (-0.0039999999999996 -0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
61% (0.0040000000000049 0)38.99% (-0.0079999999999956 -0.01)
AC Milan Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
70.6% (-0.093000000000004 -0.09)29.4% (0.088999999999999 0.09)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
34.61% (-0.113 -0.11)65.39% (0.108 0.11)
Score Analysis
    Bayer Leverkusen 56.65%
    AC Milan 22.24%
    Draw 21.11%
Bayer LeverkusenDrawAC Milan
2-1 @ 9.73% (0.0050000000000008 0.01)
2-0 @ 7.95% (0.024 0.02)
1-0 @ 7.72% (0.023 0.02)
3-1 @ 6.68% (0.0040000000000004 0)
3-0 @ 5.46% (0.017 0.02)
3-2 @ 4.09% (-0.008 -0.01)
4-1 @ 3.44% (0.0030000000000001 0)
4-0 @ 2.81% (0.0089999999999999 0.01)
4-2 @ 2.11% (-0.004 -0)
5-1 @ 1.42% (0.002 0)
5-0 @ 1.16% (0.004 0)
Other @ 4.07%
Total : 56.65%
1-1 @ 9.45% (0.0039999999999996 0)
2-2 @ 5.96% (-0.011 -0.01)
0-0 @ 3.75% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
3-3 @ 1.67% (-0.0070000000000001 -0.01)
Other @ 0.29%
Total : 21.11%
1-2 @ 5.78% (-0.012 -0.01)
0-1 @ 4.59% (0.0010000000000003 0)
0-2 @ 2.81% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
2-3 @ 2.43% (-0.011 -0.01)
1-3 @ 2.36% (-0.011 -0.01)
0-3 @ 1.15% (-0.006 -0.01)
Other @ 3.12%
Total : 22.24%

How you voted: B. Leverkusen vs AC Milan

Bayer Leverkusen
68.1%
Draw
15.0%
AC Milan
16.8%
339
rhs 2.0
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
CLiverpool38259486414584
2Arsenal382014469343574
3Manchester CityMan City38218972442871
4Chelsea38209964432169
5Newcastle UnitedNewcastle382061268472166
6Aston Villa38199105851766
7Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest381981158461265
8Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton38161396659761
9Bournemouth3815111258461256
10Brentford38168146657956
11Fulham38159145454054
12Crystal Palace381314115151053
13Everton381115124244-248
14West Ham UnitedWest Ham381110174662-1643
15Manchester UnitedMan Utd38119184454-1042
16Wolverhampton WanderersWolves38126205469-1542
17Tottenham HotspurSpurs38115226465-138
RLeicester CityLeicester3867253380-4725
RIpswich TownIpswich38410243682-4622
RSouthampton3826302686-6012


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