Champions League

Champions League | Quarter-Finals | 1st Leg

Apr 11, 2023 at 8pm UK

Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica

Benfica
0 - 2
Inter Milan

(Inter Milan win 5-3 on aggregate)

FT(HT: 0-0)

Barella (51'), Lukaku (82' pen.)

The Match

Form, Standings, Stats

Benfica

All competitions

Champions League

Last Game: Benfica 1-2 Porto
Friday, April 7 at 6pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

Top scorers

Inter Milan

All competitions

Champions League

Last Game: Salernitana 1-1 Inter Milan
Friday, April 7 at 4pm in Serie A

Goals
for

Top scorers

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 43.78%. A win for Inter Milan had a probability of 32.94% and a draw had a probability of 23.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.1%) and 2-0 (6.11%). The likeliest Inter Milan win was 1-2 (7.64%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.41%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 4.4% likelihood.

Result
Benfica	Draw	Inter Milan
43.78% ( 0.4)	23.28% ( -0.2)	32.94% ( -0.2)

Both teams to score 63.18% (

0.65)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

61.76% (

0.89)

38.23% (

-0.88)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

39.49% (

0.93)

60.51% (

-0.93)

Benfica Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

82.11% (

0.52)

17.89% (

-0.52)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

51.33% (

0.89)

48.67% (

-0.89)

Inter Milan Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

76.94% (

0.31)

23.06% (

-0.3)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

43.11% (

0.45)

56.88% (

-0.44)

Score Analysis

Benfica 43.78%

Inter Milan 32.94%

Draw 23.28%

Benfica	Draw	Inter Milan
2-1 @ 8.96% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 7.1% ( -0.18) 2-0 @ 6.11% ( -0.05) 3-1 @ 5.14% ( 0.09) 3-2 @ 3.77% ( 0.1) 3-0 @ 3.5% ( 0.03) 4-1 @ 2.21% ( 0.07) 4-2 @ 1.62% ( 0.07) 4-0 @ 1.51% ( 0.04) Other @ 3.85% Total : 43.78%	1-1 @ 10.41% ( -0.17) 2-2 @ 6.58% ( 0.06) 0-0 @ 4.12% ( -0.18) 3-3 @ 1.85% ( 0.07) Other @ 0.32% Total : 23.28%	1-2 @ 7.64% ( -0.05) 0-1 @ 6.05% ( -0.2) 0-2 @ 4.44% ( -0.11) 1-3 @ 3.74% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 3.22% ( 0.06) 0-3 @ 2.17% ( -0.03) 1-4 @ 1.37% ( 0.01) 2-4 @ 1.18% ( 0.03) Other @ 3.14% Total : 32.94%