Gremio
Copa do Brasil | Third Round | 1st Leg
Jul 14, 2024 at 3pm UK
Arena do Gremio

Gremio
3 - 1
Operario PR

Pavon (22' pen.), Galdino (32'), Nunes (54')
Pepe (40'), Geromel (67'), Moreira (85')
FT(HT: 2-1)
Henrique Silva (30')
Maranhao Oliveira (14'), Antonio Rodrigues (19'), Pira (88')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Copa do Brasil clash between Gremio and Operario Ferroviario, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Gremio

All competitions
Last Game: Gremio 0-2 Cruzeiro
Wednesday, July 10 at 10.30pm in Brasileiro

Operario Ferroviario

Last Game: Operario PR 0-2 America Mineiro
Thursday, March 5 at 11pm in Copa do Brasil

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gremio win with a probability of 53.84%. A draw had a probability of 24.5% and a win for Operario Ferroviario had a probability of 21.69%.

The most likely scoreline for a Gremio win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.09%) and 2-1 (9.62%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.62%), while for a Operario Ferroviario win it was 0-1 (7.02%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Gremio would win this match.

Result
GremioDrawOperario Ferroviario
53.84% (-2.013 -2.01)24.46% (0.375 0.38)21.69% (1.637 1.64)
Both teams to score 49.7% (1.191 1.19)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
48.35% (0.398 0.4)51.65% (-0.398 -0.4)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
26.56% (0.343 0.34)73.43% (-0.345 -0.34)
Gremio Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
80.88% (-0.61799999999999 -0.62)19.11% (0.617 0.62)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
49.25% (-1.035 -1.04)50.75% (1.034 1.03)
Operario Ferroviario Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
61.44% (1.927 1.93)38.56% (-1.927 -1.93)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
24.69% (1.787 1.79)75.3% (-1.788 -1.79)
Score Analysis
    Gremio 53.84%
    Operario Ferroviario 21.69%
    Draw 24.46%
GremioDrawOperario Ferroviario
1-0 @ 12.19% (-0.44 -0.44)
2-0 @ 10.09% (-0.57 -0.57)
2-1 @ 9.62% (-0.026 -0.03)
3-0 @ 5.57% (-0.433 -0.43)
3-1 @ 5.3% (-0.12 -0.12)
3-2 @ 2.53% (0.075 0.08)
4-0 @ 2.3% (-0.229 -0.23)
4-1 @ 2.19% (-0.094 -0.09)
4-2 @ 1.05% (0.011 0.01)
Other @ 3.01%
Total : 53.84%
1-1 @ 11.62% (0.2 0.2)
0-0 @ 7.37% (-0.118 -0.12)
2-2 @ 4.58% (0.223 0.22)
Other @ 0.89%
Total : 24.46%
0-1 @ 7.02% (0.253 0.25)
1-2 @ 5.54% (0.373 0.37)
0-2 @ 3.35% (0.286 0.29)
1-3 @ 1.76% (0.203 0.2)
2-3 @ 1.46% (0.142 0.14)
0-3 @ 1.06% (0.14 0.14)
Other @ 1.5%
Total : 21.69%

How you voted: Gremio vs Operario PR

Gremio
81.8%
Draw
0.0%
Operario Ferroviario
18.2%
11
Head to Head
May 1, 2024
12am
Third Round
Operario PR  
vs.
  Gremio
rhs 2.0
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