Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Madrid win with a probability of 69.33%. A draw had a probability of 18.2% and a win for Espanyol had a probability of 12.42%.
The most likely scoreline for a Real Madrid win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.45%) and 2-1 (9.67%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.65%), while for a Espanyol win it was 0-1 (3.87%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Real Madrid would win this match.
Result | ||
Real Madrid | Draw | Espanyol |
69.33% (![]() | 18.25% (![]() | 12.42% (![]() |
Both teams to score 50.25% (![]() |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
59.06% (![]() | 40.94% (![]() |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
36.67% (![]() | 63.33% (![]() |
Real Madrid Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
89.3% (![]() | 10.7% (![]() |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
65.39% (![]() | 34.61% (![]() |
Espanyol Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
56.27% (![]() | 43.73% (![]() |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
20.1% (![]() | 79.9% (![]() |
Score Analysis |
Real Madrid | Draw | Espanyol |
2-0 @ 11.68% (![]() 1-0 @ 10.45% ( ![]() 2-1 @ 9.67% ( ![]() 3-0 @ 8.71% ( ![]() 3-1 @ 7.2% ( ![]() 4-0 @ 4.86% ( ![]() 4-1 @ 4.02% ( ![]() 3-2 @ 2.98% ( ![]() 5-0 @ 2.17% ( ![]() 5-1 @ 1.8% ( ![]() 4-2 @ 1.66% ( ![]() Other @ 4.11% Total : 69.32% | 1-1 @ 8.65% (![]() 0-0 @ 4.68% ( ![]() 2-2 @ 4% ( ![]() Other @ 0.92% Total : 18.25% | 0-1 @ 3.87% (![]() 1-2 @ 3.58% ( ![]() 0-2 @ 1.6% ( ![]() 2-3 @ 1.1% ( ![]() 1-3 @ 0.99% ( ![]() Other @ 1.29% Total : 12.42% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Barcelona | 38 | 28 | 4 | 6 | 102 | 39 | 63 | 88 |
2 | Real Madrid | 38 | 26 | 6 | 6 | 78 | 38 | 40 | 84 |
3 | Atletico MadridAtletico | 38 | 22 | 10 | 6 | 68 | 30 | 38 | 76 |
4 | Athletic Bilbao | 38 | 19 | 13 | 6 | 54 | 29 | 25 | 70 |
5 | Villarreal | 38 | 20 | 10 | 8 | 71 | 51 | 20 | 70 |
6 | Real BetisBetis | 38 | 16 | 12 | 10 | 57 | 50 | 7 | 60 |
7 | Celta Vigo | 38 | 16 | 7 | 15 | 59 | 57 | 2 | 55 |
8 | Osasuna | 38 | 12 | 16 | 10 | 48 | 52 | -4 | 52 |
9 | Rayo Vallecano | 38 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 41 | 45 | -4 | 52 |
10 | Mallorca | 38 | 13 | 9 | 16 | 35 | 44 | -9 | 48 |
11 | Valencia | 38 | 11 | 13 | 14 | 44 | 54 | -10 | 46 |
12 | Real Sociedad | 38 | 13 | 7 | 18 | 35 | 46 | -11 | 46 |
13 | Getafe | 38 | 11 | 9 | 18 | 34 | 39 | -5 | 42 |
14 | AlavesAlaves | 38 | 10 | 12 | 16 | 38 | 48 | -10 | 42 |
15 | Espanyol | 38 | 11 | 9 | 18 | 40 | 51 | -11 | 42 |
16 | Sevilla | 38 | 10 | 11 | 17 | 42 | 55 | -13 | 41 |
17 | GironaGirona | 38 | 11 | 8 | 19 | 44 | 60 | -16 | 41 |
18 | Leganes | 38 | 9 | 13 | 16 | 39 | 56 | -17 | 40 |
R | Las PalmasLas Palmas | 38 | 8 | 8 | 22 | 40 | 61 | -21 | 32 |
R | Real ValladolidValladolid | 38 | 4 | 4 | 30 | 26 | 90 | -64 | 16 |
> La Liga Full Table |