UEFA Nations League header

UEFA Nations League

Spain national football team
Nations League | Semi-Finals
Jun 15, 2023 at 7.45pm UK
De Grolsch Veste
Italy national football team

Spain
2 - 1
Italy

Pino (3'), Joselu (88')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Immobile (11' pen.)

The Match

Match Report

Spain book their spot in the final of the 2022-23 UEFA Nations League courtesy of a 2-1 victory over Italy, with Joselu netting a late winner for La Roja.

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Nations League semi-final between Spain and Italy, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Predicted Lineups

Sports Mole takes an in-depth look at how Italy could line up for Thursday's UEFA Nations League semi-final against Spain.

Form, Standings, Stats

Spain

All competitions
Nations League
Last Game: Scotland 2-0 Spain
Tuesday, March 28 at 7.45pm in Euro Champ Qualifying

Italy

All competitions
Nations League
Last Game: Malta 0-2 Italy
Sunday, March 26 at 7.45pm in Euro Champ Qualifying

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Spain win with a probability of 42.98%. A win for Italy had a probability of 31.15% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.

The most likely scoreline for a Spain win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.28%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.92%) and 2-0 (7.46%). The likeliest Italy win was 0-1 (8.48%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.29%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Spain would win this match.

Result
SpainDrawItaly
42.98% (-0.045999999999999 -0.05)25.87% (0.058 0.06)31.15% (-0.013999999999999 -0.01)
Both teams to score 53.4% (-0.193 -0.19)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
49.32% (-0.25 -0.25)50.68% (0.249 0.25)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
27.41% (-0.221 -0.22)72.58% (0.22 0.22)
Spain Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
76.56% (-0.131 -0.13)23.44% (0.13 0.13)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
42.56% (-0.192 -0.19)57.44% (0.19 0.19)
Italy Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
69.75% (-0.136 -0.14)30.25% (0.134 0.13)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
33.58% (-0.164 -0.16)66.42% (0.163 0.16)
Score Analysis
    Spain 42.97%
    Italy 31.15%
    Draw 25.86%
SpainDrawItaly
1-0 @ 10.28% (0.059999999999999 0.06)
2-1 @ 8.92% (-0.011999999999999 -0.01)
2-0 @ 7.46% (0.017 0.02)
3-1 @ 4.32% (-0.021999999999999 -0.02)
3-0 @ 3.61% (-0.0059999999999998 -0.01)
3-2 @ 2.58% (-0.024 -0.02)
4-1 @ 1.57% (-0.014 -0.01)
4-0 @ 1.31% (-0.0070000000000001 -0.01)
4-2 @ 0.94% (-0.012 -0.01)
Other @ 2%
Total : 42.97%
1-1 @ 12.29% (0.029999999999999 0.03)
0-0 @ 7.09% (0.071 0.07)
2-2 @ 5.33% (-0.027 -0.03)
3-3 @ 1.03% (-0.013 -0.01)
Other @ 0.12%
Total : 25.86%
0-1 @ 8.48% (0.053000000000001 0.05)
1-2 @ 7.35% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)
0-2 @ 5.07% (0.013 0.01)
1-3 @ 2.93% (-0.014 -0.01)
2-3 @ 2.13% (-0.019 -0.02)
0-3 @ 2.02% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
Other @ 3.17%
Total : 31.15%

How you voted: Spain vs Italy

Spain
58.0%
Draw
15.2%
Italy
26.8%
224
Head to Head
Oct 6, 2021 7.45pm
Semi-Finals
Italy
1-2
Spain
Pellegrini (83')
Bonucci (30'), Locatelli (82')
Bonucci (42')
Torres (17', 45+2')
Azpilicueta (45'), Sarabia (65'), Pino (71'), Oyarzabal (89')
> Preview
Jul 6, 2021 8pm
Semi-Finals
Italy
1-1
Spain
 Italy win 4-2 on penalties
Chiesa (60')
Toloi (97'), Bonucci (118')
Morata (80')
Busquets (51')
> Match Report
Sep 2, 2017 7.45pm
Group Stage
Spain
3-0
Italy
Isco (13', 40'), Morata (77')
> Match Report
Oct 6, 2016 7.45pm
Group Stage
Italy
1-1
Spain
De Rossi (82' pen.)
Vitolo (55')
> Match Report
Jun 27, 2016 5pm
Round of 16
Italy
2-0
Spain
Chiellini (33'), Pelle (91')
De Sciglio (24'), Pelle (54'), Motta (89')

Nolito (41'), Busquets (89'), Silva (94')
> Match Report
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