Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City win with a probability of 71.62%. A draw had a probability of 15.9% and a win for Manchester United had a probability of 12.52%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.78%) and 3-1 (8.05%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.89%), while for a Manchester United win it was 1-2 (3.58%). The actual scoreline of 6-3 was predicted with a 0.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Manchester City would win this match.