We said: Benfica 3-1 Rio Ave
Having won six straight games before Wednesday's defeat against Bodo/Glimt, Benfica will head into the weekend looking to clean the dust off their feet and return to winning ways.
While Rio Ave set out in search of consecutive wins for the first time since March 2023, they have struggled to get going away from home and we fancy As Aguias to extend their dominance in this fixture.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 80.56%. A draw had a probability of 12.7% and a win for Rio Ave had a probability of 6.76%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (11.02%) and 1-0 (8.53%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.98%), while for a Rio Ave win it was 0-1 (2.15%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 4.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Benfica would win this match.