League One

League One | Gameweek 43

Apr 18, 2023 at 7.45pm UK

St James Park

Exeter
1 - 2
Derby

Sparkes (78')

FT(HT: 0-0)

McGoldrick (52', 76')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Tuesday's League One clash between Exeter City and Derby County, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Exeter City

All competitions

Last Game: Exeter 0-1 Plymouth
Saturday, April 15 at 12pm in League One

Goals
for

Top scorers

Derby County

All competitions

Last Game: Bristol Rovers 1-1 Derby
Saturday, April 15 at 3pm in League One

Goals
for

Top scorers

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 45.24%. A win for Exeter City had a probability of 28.46% and a draw had a probability of 26.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.02%) and 0-2 (8.29%). The likeliest Exeter City win was 1-0 (8.65%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.49%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Derby County in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Derby County.

Result
Exeter City	Draw	Derby County
28.46% ( 0.06)	26.29% ( -0.01)	45.24% ( -0.05)

Both teams to score 50.65% (

0.05)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

46.42% (

0.05)

53.57% (

-0.05)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

24.92% (

0.04)

75.08% (

-0.05)

Exeter City Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

66.3% (

0.07)

33.69% (

-0.07)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

29.65% (

0.08)

70.34% (

-0.08)

Derby County Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

76.39% (

-0)

23.6% (

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

42.31% (

-0)

57.68% (

Score Analysis

Exeter City 28.47%

Derby County 45.24%

Draw 26.29%

Exeter City	Draw	Derby County
1-0 @ 8.65% ( -0) 2-1 @ 6.8% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 4.71% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 2.46% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 1.78% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 1.71% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.36% Total : 28.47%	1-1 @ 12.49% 0-0 @ 7.95% ( -0.02) 2-2 @ 4.91% ( 0.01) Other @ 0.95% Total : 26.29%	0-1 @ 11.48% ( -0.02) 1-2 @ 9.02% ( -0) 0-2 @ 8.29% ( -0.02) 1-3 @ 4.34% ( -0) 0-3 @ 3.99% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 2.36% ( 0.01) 1-4 @ 1.57% ( -0) 0-4 @ 1.44% ( -0) Other @ 2.76% Total : 45.24%