Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Aston Villa win with a probability of 39.6%. A win for Everton had a probability of 34.03% and a draw had a probability of 26.4%.
The most likely scoreline for an Aston Villa win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.51%) and 2-0 (6.87%). The likeliest Everton win was 0-1 (9.25%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.54%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 1.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Aston Villa would win this match.
Result | ||
Aston Villa | Draw | Everton |
39.6% (![]() | 26.37% (![]() | 34.03% (![]() |
Both teams to score 52.71% (![]() |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
48.01% (![]() | 51.99% (![]() |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
26.27% (![]() | 73.73% (![]() |
Aston Villa Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
74.24% (![]() | 25.76% (![]() |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
39.3% (![]() | 60.69% (![]() |
Everton Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
70.99% (![]() | 29.01% (![]() |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
35.09% (![]() | 64.91% (![]() |
Score Analysis |
Aston Villa | Draw | Everton |
1-0 @ 10.13% (![]() 2-1 @ 8.51% ( ![]() 2-0 @ 6.87% ( ![]() 3-1 @ 3.85% ( ![]() 3-0 @ 3.11% ( ![]() 3-2 @ 2.38% ( ![]() 4-1 @ 1.3% ( ![]() 4-0 @ 1.05% ( ![]() Other @ 2.39% Total : 39.6% | 1-1 @ 12.54% (![]() 0-0 @ 7.47% ( ![]() 2-2 @ 5.27% ( ![]() 3-3 @ 0.98% ( ![]() Other @ 0.11% Total : 26.37% | 0-1 @ 9.25% (![]() 1-2 @ 7.76% ( ![]() 0-2 @ 5.72% ( ![]() 1-3 @ 3.2% ( ![]() 0-3 @ 2.36% ( ![]() 2-3 @ 2.17% ( ![]() 1-4 @ 0.99% ( ![]() Other @ 2.57% Total : 34.03% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Liverpool | 36 | 25 | 8 | 3 | 83 | 37 | 46 | 83 |
2 | Arsenal | 36 | 18 | 14 | 4 | 66 | 33 | 33 | 68 |
3 | Newcastle UnitedNewcastle | 36 | 20 | 6 | 10 | 68 | 45 | 23 | 66 |
4 | Chelsea | 37 | 19 | 9 | 9 | 63 | 43 | 20 | 66 |
5 | Aston Villa | 37 | 19 | 9 | 9 | 58 | 49 | 9 | 66 |
6 | Manchester CityMan City | 36 | 19 | 8 | 9 | 67 | 43 | 24 | 65 |
7 | Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest | 36 | 18 | 8 | 10 | 56 | 44 | 12 | 62 |
8 | Brentford | 36 | 16 | 7 | 13 | 63 | 53 | 10 | 55 |
9 | Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton | 36 | 14 | 13 | 9 | 59 | 56 | 3 | 55 |
10 | Bournemouth | 36 | 14 | 11 | 11 | 55 | 43 | 12 | 53 |
11 | Fulham | 36 | 14 | 9 | 13 | 51 | 50 | 1 | 51 |
12 | Crystal Palace | 36 | 12 | 13 | 11 | 46 | 48 | -2 | 49 |
13 | Everton | 36 | 9 | 15 | 12 | 39 | 44 | -5 | 42 |
14 | Wolverhampton WanderersWolves | 36 | 12 | 5 | 19 | 51 | 64 | -13 | 41 |
15 | West Ham UnitedWest Ham | 36 | 10 | 10 | 16 | 42 | 59 | -17 | 40 |
16 | Manchester UnitedMan Utd | 37 | 10 | 9 | 18 | 42 | 54 | -12 | 39 |
17 | Tottenham HotspurSpurs | 37 | 11 | 5 | 21 | 63 | 61 | 2 | 38 |
R | Ipswich TownIpswich | 36 | 4 | 10 | 22 | 35 | 77 | -42 | 22 |
R | Leicester CityLeicester | 36 | 5 | 7 | 24 | 31 | 78 | -47 | 22 |
R | Southampton | 36 | 2 | 6 | 28 | 25 | 82 | -57 | 12 |
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