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Europa League
Besiktas
Europa League | Playoffs | 2nd Leg
Aug 29, 2024 at 7pm UK
Vodafone Park (Istanbul)
Lugano

Besiktas
5 - 1
Lugano

Immobile (7', 71'), Fernandes (65'), Silva (70'), Ucan (90+2')
Fernandes (28'), Kilicsoy (42'), Han Topcu (61')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Vladi (59')
Valenzuela (5'), Bislimi (90+1')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Europa League clash between Besiktas and Lugano, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Besiktas

All competitions
Europa League
Last Game: Lugano 3-3 Besiktas
Thursday, August 22 at 7.30pm in Europa League

Lugano

All competitions
Europa League
Last Game: Lugano 3-3 Besiktas
Thursday, August 22 at 7.30pm in Europa League

We said: Besiktas 2-1 Lugano (Besiktas to win 5-4 on aggregate)

 Both sides have shown their attacking qualities and defensive weaknesses in recent weeks and another end-to-end contest could be in store on Thursday. Lugano will fancy their chances of pulling off an upset, but we are backing Besiktas to prevail on home soil. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Besiktas win with a probability of 51.98%. A win for Lugano had a probability of 24.71% and a draw had a probability of 23.3%.

The most likely scoreline for a Besiktas win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.43%) and 2-0 (8.4%). The likeliest Lugano win was 1-2 (6.32%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.91%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 0.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Besiktas would win this match.

Result
BesiktasDrawLugano
51.98% (-0.254 -0.25) 23.3% (0.208 0.21) 24.71% (0.045999999999999 0.05)
Both teams to score 57.01% (-0.664 -0.66)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
56.28% (-0.897 -0.9)43.72% (0.896 0.9)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
33.89% (-0.887 -0.89)66.11% (0.88500000000001 0.89)
Besiktas Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
83.15% (-0.42100000000001 -0.42)16.85% (0.42 0.42)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
53.14% (-0.752 -0.75)46.85% (0.751 0.75)
Lugano Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
68.56% (-0.45 -0.45)31.44% (0.448 0.45)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
32.18% (-0.523 -0.52)67.81% (0.521 0.52)
Score Analysis
    Besiktas 51.98%
    Lugano 24.71%
    Draw 23.3%
BesiktasDrawLugano
2-1 @ 9.72% (-0.0079999999999991 -0.01)
1-0 @ 9.43% (0.237 0.24)
2-0 @ 8.4% (0.094999999999999 0.09)
3-1 @ 5.77% (-0.087000000000001 -0.09)
3-0 @ 4.99% (-0.013 -0.01)
3-2 @ 3.34% (-0.092 -0.09)
4-1 @ 2.57% (-0.076 -0.08)
4-0 @ 2.22% (-0.037 -0.04)
4-2 @ 1.49% (-0.063 -0.06)
5-1 @ 0.92% (-0.04 -0.04)
Other @ 3.14%
Total : 51.98%
1-1 @ 10.91% (0.14 0.14)
2-2 @ 5.62% (-0.075 -0.08)
0-0 @ 5.3% (0.205 0.21)
3-3 @ 1.29% (-0.052 -0.05)
Other @ 0.18%
Total : 23.3%
1-2 @ 6.32% (0.0060000000000002 0.01)
0-1 @ 6.13% (0.165 0.16)
0-2 @ 3.55% (0.052 0.05)
1-3 @ 2.44% (-0.028 -0.03)
2-3 @ 2.17% (-0.056 -0.06)
0-3 @ 1.37% (0.004 0)
Other @ 2.75%
Total : 24.71%

How you voted: Besiktas vs Lugano

Besiktas
85.4%
Draw
9.4%
Lugano
5.2%
96
Head to Head
Aug 22, 2024 7.30pm
Playoffs 1st Leg
Lugano
3-3
Besiktas
Bislimi (34'), Steffen (56'), Paulista (64' og.)
Doumbia (47'), Valenzuela (77')
Fernandes (21', 52'), Elmusrati (55')
Ndour (45+2'), Onana (84')
> Preview
Dec 14, 2023 8pm
Group Stage
Lugano
0-2
Besiktas

Espinoza (73'), Hajdari (76')
Steffen (90')
Tosun (36'), Terzi (88')
Muleka (9'), Tiknaz (63'), Bulut (75'), Erhan Hekimoglu (75'), Zainutdinov (79')
Oxlade-Chamberlain (90')
Oct 5, 2023 5.45pm
Group Stage
Besiktas
2-3
Lugano
Aboubakar (38', 52')
Rosier (43')
Rosier (61')
Aliseda (81'), Vladi (86'), Bailly (90' og.)
Bottani (43')
rhs 2.0
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