Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Aston Villa win with a probability of 44.32%. A win for Everton had a probability of 32.16% and a draw had a probability of 23.5%.
The most likely scoreline for an Aston Villa win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.51%) and 2-0 (6.39%). The likeliest Everton win was 1-2 (7.56%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.65%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Aston Villa would win this match.
Result | ||
Aston Villa | Draw | Everton |
44.32% (![]() | 23.52% (![]() | 32.16% (![]() |
Both teams to score 61.96% (![]() |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
60.31% (![]() | 39.69% (![]() |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
37.96% (![]() | 62.04% (![]() |
Aston Villa Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
81.75% (![]() | 18.25% (![]() |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
50.7% (![]() | 49.29% (![]() |
Everton Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
75.8% (![]() | 24.2% (![]() |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
41.46% (![]() | 58.54% (![]() |
Score Analysis |
Aston Villa | Draw | Everton |
2-1 @ 9.07% (![]() 1-0 @ 7.51% ( ![]() 2-0 @ 6.39% ( ![]() 3-1 @ 5.14% ( ![]() 3-2 @ 3.65% ( ![]() 3-0 @ 3.62% ( ![]() 4-1 @ 2.19% ( ![]() 4-2 @ 1.55% ( ![]() 4-0 @ 1.54% ( ![]() Other @ 3.66% Total : 44.32% | 1-1 @ 10.65% (![]() 2-2 @ 6.43% ( ![]() 0-0 @ 4.42% ( ![]() 3-3 @ 1.73% ( ![]() Other @ 0.29% Total : 23.51% | 1-2 @ 7.56% (![]() 0-1 @ 6.27% ( ![]() 0-2 @ 4.45% ( ![]() 1-3 @ 3.58% ( ![]() 2-3 @ 3.04% ( ![]() 0-3 @ 2.1% ( ![]() 1-4 @ 1.27% ( ![]() 2-4 @ 1.08% ( ![]() Other @ 2.82% Total : 32.16% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Liverpool | 36 | 25 | 8 | 3 | 83 | 37 | 46 | 83 |
2 | Arsenal | 36 | 18 | 14 | 4 | 66 | 33 | 33 | 68 |
3 | Newcastle UnitedNewcastle | 36 | 20 | 6 | 10 | 68 | 45 | 23 | 66 |
4 | Chelsea | 37 | 19 | 9 | 9 | 63 | 43 | 20 | 66 |
5 | Aston Villa | 37 | 19 | 9 | 9 | 58 | 49 | 9 | 66 |
6 | Manchester CityMan City | 36 | 19 | 8 | 9 | 67 | 43 | 24 | 65 |
7 | Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest | 36 | 18 | 8 | 10 | 56 | 44 | 12 | 62 |
8 | Brentford | 36 | 16 | 7 | 13 | 63 | 53 | 10 | 55 |
9 | Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton | 36 | 14 | 13 | 9 | 59 | 56 | 3 | 55 |
10 | Bournemouth | 36 | 14 | 11 | 11 | 55 | 43 | 12 | 53 |
11 | Fulham | 36 | 14 | 9 | 13 | 51 | 50 | 1 | 51 |
12 | Crystal Palace | 36 | 12 | 13 | 11 | 46 | 48 | -2 | 49 |
13 | Everton | 36 | 9 | 15 | 12 | 39 | 44 | -5 | 42 |
14 | Wolverhampton WanderersWolves | 36 | 12 | 5 | 19 | 51 | 64 | -13 | 41 |
15 | West Ham UnitedWest Ham | 36 | 10 | 10 | 16 | 42 | 59 | -17 | 40 |
16 | Manchester UnitedMan Utd | 37 | 10 | 9 | 18 | 42 | 54 | -12 | 39 |
17 | Tottenham HotspurSpurs | 37 | 11 | 5 | 21 | 63 | 61 | 2 | 38 |
R | Ipswich TownIpswich | 36 | 4 | 10 | 22 | 35 | 77 | -42 | 22 |
R | Leicester CityLeicester | 36 | 5 | 7 | 24 | 31 | 78 | -47 | 22 |
R | Southampton | 36 | 2 | 6 | 28 | 25 | 82 | -57 | 12 |
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